Monday, August 14, 2006
IMF Report
Saturday, May 28, 2005
研究計画書
Below is my research proposal for Master course at Japanese University
1. 問題の知識
経済の実態および規模にかかわらず、経済成長は重要な課題の一つである。潜在成長力に基づいて政策を計画し、経済に持続可能な成長をもたらすことは政府の責任であり、経済発展の最終の目標だといえるだろう。各国の経済が発展するとともに、経済の相互依存性が大きくなり、輸出入、資本の流出入も拡大しており、外国通貨の需要の増加に結びいついている。特に世界貿易機関の加盟国や自由貿易協定における国々の間で増加している。
現在、外国為替市場の規制緩和およびIT革命と共に、流動性、市場透明性、低い取引コスト、そしてネット取引の増加によって、外国為替市場の日額は１兆５０００億ドルまで達し、世界の先物市場の金額（約４３７４億ドル）、世界の株式市場の金額（約１９１０億ドル）に比べ、外国為替市場は世界で最も流動性のある市場である[1]。
これらの要因によって、外国為替市場における為替レートの変動が大きくなり、その不安定性は経済発展に悪影響を与える可能性が大きくなる。政策策定者にとって外国為替市場の安定は大きな関心となる課題である。為替市場の不安定性を縮小し、経済へ円滑な成長をもたらすための、適切な為替政策はいかなるものかを注意深く考える必要がある。
各国によって為替政策が異なっているのは興味深い問題である。変動相場制を代表する国である日本とアメリカがそれぞれ、自国通貨を安くする政策（円安政策）、自国通貨を高くする政策（強いドル政策）を導入している。それに対して、中国では、G7各国から圧力を受けても、アジア通貨危機の原因と言われている固定相場制の放棄を拒絶し、自国の通貨をドルにペッグし続けた。
私の出身国であるカンボジアでは、外国からの援助を多く受け入れ、自国の通貨とともに外国の通貨が同時に利用されている。このようなドル化政策は、経済発展に促進させるかどうかも疑問がある。
したがってこのような政策の違いを検討し、為替政策と経済成長の関係を明らかにすること、そして為替政策の最適化を求めることは、非常に重要なことの一つである。
2. 研究の目的
現在一部の世界の国々、特にカンボジアにおいて実施しているドル化政策は経済発展にどのような影響を与えるのか、カンボジアと他の国（ドル化を実施してない国）の状況に基づいて開放小国モデルによる実証分析を行いたいと考える。分析の結果、ドル化為替政策を続けるべきかどうかを明白にすることは、本研究の第一目の目的である。
第二目の目的は、世界の代表的な為替政策を見つけ出し、それぞれの政策を比較し、どのように経済への影響を与えているかを検討するため、日本を始め、アメリカ、中国のデータで実証分析を行い、それぞれの国における政策の有効性を分析し、各国の為替政策を評価したいと思っている。
第三目の目的はこれらの国々の為替政策から学んだ経験に基づいて、カンボジアの経済や社会状況の実態の調査結果を合わせて、カンボジアの滑らかな経済成長に貢献できる政策を提言したいと考える。
3. 研究の内容
以上に述べた研究目的の下に、次のような内容で研究を進めたいと考えている。
① 外国為替市場のメカニズムを観察し、為替レートの変動の要因を明らかにする。
② 中国の固定相場制、日本やアメリカの変動相場制を検討し、なぜそれぞれの国が違った政策を採るのか明らかにしようと考える。そして、１９９７－９８年におけるアジア通貨危機前の東南アジアのいくつかの国が導入した管理変動相場制を再検討する。
③ カンボジアにおけるドル化政策を具体的に調べ、その政策のコストおよび便益を明白にする。
④ 為替政策と経済発展の関係を明らかにするため、実証分析を行い、日本の円安政策、アメリカの強いドル政策と中国のドルに固定する政策、カンボジアのドル化政策のケースを検討する。さらに、為替の変動が経済主体にどのような影響を及ぼすものであるかを調べると考えている。
⑤ カンボジアの経済状態を分析し、東南アジアにおけるこの貧しい国に対してどのような政策を導入すれば望ましいのかを検討し、世界各国の為替政策の経験から、経済の持続的な高度成長を可能にするアイデアを講じる。
結論の部分では日本、アメリカ、中国、特にカンボジアの遂行している為替政策を評価し、それらの政策の将来性を考察する。
4. 研究の進め方
本研究のプロセスは次の方法で行いたいと思っている。
授業を通じて金融政策、財政政策、国際経済論などの高度な知識を習得すると共に、研究テーマに関する実証分析を行うため、統計的な技術を学び、計量経済学の専門的な力を身につける。
また、分析を行うに必要なデータは世界銀行、IMFなどのCD-ROMや出版した資料をから引用すると考える。
カンボジアの経済実態を明らかにするためには、この数年間のデータに基づいて本研究に必要なものをカンボジア国立統計機関やカンボジア経済・社会開発研究機関などから引用する。また、必要に応じて現地に行き、情報収集を行う。
将来志望する進路
将来カンボジアの経済・社会発展を貢献できるように大学院において経済政策を更に深く一生懸命に勉強し、経済や金融の高度な知識を身に付け、良い成績を修め、優れた研究成果を残したいと考えている。
日本での留学が終わったら、カンボジアに帰って、政府機関、研究機関、シンクタンなどへ就職を狙い、日本で習得した知識を発揮して、国の発展に貢献したいと考えている。
参考文献
① 西野万里・丸谷泠史 『新しい経済政策論』 有斐閣コンパクト ２００２年
② Reuven Glick ( 2000) “Fixed or Floating? Is still possible to manage in the Middle? ”Pacific Basin Working Paper Series, working paper No. PB00-02
③ Hwee Kwan Chow, Yoonbai Kim (2003) “A common currency peg in East Asia? Prospective from western Europe”Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol.25,p331-350
④ Daily FX: “Forex News, Currency Trading News, Currency News, Forex Trading News ”http://www.dailyfx.com/
[1]出所） Daily FX: http://www.dailyfx.com/witfm_wtfx_overview.html
1. 問題の知識
経済の実態および規模にかかわらず、経済成長は重要な課題の一つである。潜在成長力に基づいて政策を計画し、経済に持続可能な成長をもたらすことは政府の責任であり、経済発展の最終の目標だといえるだろう。各国の経済が発展するとともに、経済の相互依存性が大きくなり、輸出入、資本の流出入も拡大しており、外国通貨の需要の増加に結びいついている。特に世界貿易機関の加盟国や自由貿易協定における国々の間で増加している。
現在、外国為替市場の規制緩和およびIT革命と共に、流動性、市場透明性、低い取引コスト、そしてネット取引の増加によって、外国為替市場の日額は１兆５０００億ドルまで達し、世界の先物市場の金額（約４３７４億ドル）、世界の株式市場の金額（約１９１０億ドル）に比べ、外国為替市場は世界で最も流動性のある市場である[1]。
これらの要因によって、外国為替市場における為替レートの変動が大きくなり、その不安定性は経済発展に悪影響を与える可能性が大きくなる。政策策定者にとって外国為替市場の安定は大きな関心となる課題である。為替市場の不安定性を縮小し、経済へ円滑な成長をもたらすための、適切な為替政策はいかなるものかを注意深く考える必要がある。
各国によって為替政策が異なっているのは興味深い問題である。変動相場制を代表する国である日本とアメリカがそれぞれ、自国通貨を安くする政策（円安政策）、自国通貨を高くする政策（強いドル政策）を導入している。それに対して、中国では、G7各国から圧力を受けても、アジア通貨危機の原因と言われている固定相場制の放棄を拒絶し、自国の通貨をドルにペッグし続けた。
私の出身国であるカンボジアでは、外国からの援助を多く受け入れ、自国の通貨とともに外国の通貨が同時に利用されている。このようなドル化政策は、経済発展に促進させるかどうかも疑問がある。
したがってこのような政策の違いを検討し、為替政策と経済成長の関係を明らかにすること、そして為替政策の最適化を求めることは、非常に重要なことの一つである。
2. 研究の目的
現在一部の世界の国々、特にカンボジアにおいて実施しているドル化政策は経済発展にどのような影響を与えるのか、カンボジアと他の国（ドル化を実施してない国）の状況に基づいて開放小国モデルによる実証分析を行いたいと考える。分析の結果、ドル化為替政策を続けるべきかどうかを明白にすることは、本研究の第一目の目的である。
第二目の目的は、世界の代表的な為替政策を見つけ出し、それぞれの政策を比較し、どのように経済への影響を与えているかを検討するため、日本を始め、アメリカ、中国のデータで実証分析を行い、それぞれの国における政策の有効性を分析し、各国の為替政策を評価したいと思っている。
第三目の目的はこれらの国々の為替政策から学んだ経験に基づいて、カンボジアの経済や社会状況の実態の調査結果を合わせて、カンボジアの滑らかな経済成長に貢献できる政策を提言したいと考える。
3. 研究の内容
以上に述べた研究目的の下に、次のような内容で研究を進めたいと考えている。
① 外国為替市場のメカニズムを観察し、為替レートの変動の要因を明らかにする。
② 中国の固定相場制、日本やアメリカの変動相場制を検討し、なぜそれぞれの国が違った政策を採るのか明らかにしようと考える。そして、１９９７－９８年におけるアジア通貨危機前の東南アジアのいくつかの国が導入した管理変動相場制を再検討する。
③ カンボジアにおけるドル化政策を具体的に調べ、その政策のコストおよび便益を明白にする。
④ 為替政策と経済発展の関係を明らかにするため、実証分析を行い、日本の円安政策、アメリカの強いドル政策と中国のドルに固定する政策、カンボジアのドル化政策のケースを検討する。さらに、為替の変動が経済主体にどのような影響を及ぼすものであるかを調べると考えている。
⑤ カンボジアの経済状態を分析し、東南アジアにおけるこの貧しい国に対してどのような政策を導入すれば望ましいのかを検討し、世界各国の為替政策の経験から、経済の持続的な高度成長を可能にするアイデアを講じる。
結論の部分では日本、アメリカ、中国、特にカンボジアの遂行している為替政策を評価し、それらの政策の将来性を考察する。
4. 研究の進め方
本研究のプロセスは次の方法で行いたいと思っている。
授業を通じて金融政策、財政政策、国際経済論などの高度な知識を習得すると共に、研究テーマに関する実証分析を行うため、統計的な技術を学び、計量経済学の専門的な力を身につける。
また、分析を行うに必要なデータは世界銀行、IMFなどのCD-ROMや出版した資料をから引用すると考える。
カンボジアの経済実態を明らかにするためには、この数年間のデータに基づいて本研究に必要なものをカンボジア国立統計機関やカンボジア経済・社会開発研究機関などから引用する。また、必要に応じて現地に行き、情報収集を行う。
将来志望する進路
将来カンボジアの経済・社会発展を貢献できるように大学院において経済政策を更に深く一生懸命に勉強し、経済や金融の高度な知識を身に付け、良い成績を修め、優れた研究成果を残したいと考えている。
日本での留学が終わったら、カンボジアに帰って、政府機関、研究機関、シンクタンなどへ就職を狙い、日本で習得した知識を発揮して、国の発展に貢献したいと考えている。
参考文献
① 西野万里・丸谷泠史 『新しい経済政策論』 有斐閣コンパクト ２００２年
② Reuven Glick ( 2000) “Fixed or Floating? Is still possible to manage in the Middle? ”Pacific Basin Working Paper Series, working paper No. PB00-02
③ Hwee Kwan Chow, Yoonbai Kim (2003) “A common currency peg in East Asia? Prospective from western Europe”Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol.25,p331-350
④ Daily FX: “Forex News, Currency Trading News, Currency News, Forex Trading News ”http://www.dailyfx.com/
[1]出所） Daily FX: http://www.dailyfx.com/witfm_wtfx_overview.html
Monday, May 16, 2005
How to Read a Chart & Act Effectively
This is a guide that tells you, in simple understandable language, how to choose the right charts, read them correctly, and act effectively in the market from what you see on them. Probably most of you have taken a course or studied the use of charts in the past. This should add to that knowledge.
Recommendation
There are several good charting packages available free. Netdania is what I use.
Using charts effectively
The default number of periods on these charts is 300. This is a good starting point;
Hourly chart that's about 12 days of data.
15 minute chart its 3 days of data.
5-minute chart it's slightly more than 24 hours of data.
You can create multiple "tabs" or "layouts" so that it’s easy to quickly switch between charts or sets of charts.
What to look at first
1. Glance at hourly chart to see the big picture. Note significant support and resistance levels within 2% of today’s opening rate.
2. Study the 15 minute chart in great detail noting the following:
Prevailing trend
Current price in relation to the 60 period simple moving average.
High and low since GMT 00:00
Tops and bottoms during full 3 day time period.
How to use the information gathered so far
1. Determine the big picture (for intraday trading).
Glancing at the hourly chart will give you the big picture – up or down. If it’s not clear immediately then you’re in a trading range. Lets assume the trend is down.
2. Determine if the 15 minute chart confirms the downtrend indicated by big picture:
Current price on 15-minute chart should be below 60 period moving average and the moving average line should be sloping down. If this is so then you have established the direction of the prevailing trend to bedown.
There are always two trends – a prevailing (major) trend and a minor trend. The minor trend is a reversal of the main trend, which lasts for a short period of time. Minor trends are clearly spotted on 5-minute charts.
3. Determine the current trend (major or minor) from the 5 minute chart:
Current price on 5-minute chart is below 60 period moving average and the moving average line is sloping downward – major trend.
Current price on 5-minute chart is above 60 period moving average and the moving average line is sloping upward – minor trend.
How to trade the information gathered so far
At this point you know the following:
Direction of the prevailing trend.
Whether we are currently trading in the direction of the prevailing (major) trend or experiencing a minor trend (reaction to major trend).
Possible trade scenarios:
1) Lets assume prevailing (major) trend is down and we are in a minor up-trend. Strategy would be to sell when the current price on 5-minute chart falls below the 60 period moving average and the 60 period moving average line is sloping downward. Why? Because the prevailing trend is reasserting itself and the next move is likely to be down. Is there more we can do? Yes. Look for further confirmation. For example, if the minor trend had stalled for a while and the lows of the past half hour or hour are very close to the 5 minute moving average then selling just below the lows of the past half hour is a better place to enter the market then just below the moving average line.
2) Lets assume prevailing (major) trend is down and 5-minute chart confirms downtrend. Strategy would be to wait for a minor (up trend) trend to appear and reverse before entering the market. The reason for this is that the move is too “mature” at this point and a correction is likely. Since you trade with tight stops you will be stopped out on a reaction. Exception: If market trades through today’s low and/ or low of past three days (these levels will be apparent on the 15 minute chart) further quick downward price action is likely and a short position would be correct.
3) A better strategy assuming prevailing trend down, 5-minute chart down, and just above days lows is to BUY with a tight stop below the day’s low. Your risk is limited and defined and the technical condition (overdone?) is in your favor. Confirmation would be if today’s low was a bit higher than yesterday’s low and the price action indicated a very short-term trading range (1 minute chart) just above today’s low. The thinking here is that buyers are not waiting for a break of today’s or yesterday’s low to buy cheaper; they are concerned they may not see the level.
4) Generally speaking, the safest place to buy is after a sustained significant decline when the bottoms are getting higher. Preferably these bottoms will be hours apart. By the third or forth higher bottom it is clear a bottom is in place and an up-move is coming. As in the example above your risk is limited and defined – a low lower than the last low.
5) The reverse is true in major up-trends.
Other chart ideas
There are always two trends to consider – a major trend and a minor trend. The minor trend is a reversal of the major trend, which generally lasts for a short period of time. Buying above old tops and selling below old bottoms can be excellent entry levels; assuming the move is not overly mature and a nearby reaction unlikely. When a strong up move is occurring the market should make both higher tops and higher bottoms. The reverse is true for down moves- lower bottoms and lower tops. Reactions (minor reversals) are smaller when a strong move is occurring. As the reactions begin to increase that is a clear warning signal that the move is losing momentum. When the last reaction exceedsthe prior reaction you can assume the trend has changed, at least temporarily. Higher bottoms always indicate strength, and an up move usually starts from the third or fourth higher bottom. Reverse this rule in a rising market; lower tops… You will always make the most money by following the major trend although to say you will never trade against the trend means that you will miss a lot of opportunities to make big profits. The rule is: When you are trading against the trend wait until you have a definite indication of a selling or buying point near the top or bottom, where you can place a close stop loss order (risk small amount of capital). The profit target can be a short-term gain to nearby resistance or more. Consider the normal or average daily range, average price change from open to high and average price change from open to low, in determining your intra-day price targets. Do not overlook the fact that it requires time for a market to get ready at the bottom before it advances and for selling pressure to work it’s way through at top before a decline. Smaller loses and sidewaystrading are a sign the trend may be waning in a downtrend. Smaller gains and sideways trading in an up trend. Fourth time at bottom or top is crucial; next phase of move will soon become clear… be ready.Oftentimes, when an important support or resistance level is broken a quick move occurs followed by a reaction back to or slightly above support or below resistance. This is a great opportunity to play thebreak on the “rebound”. Your stop can be super tight. For example, EURUSD important resistance 1.0840 is broken and a quick move to 1.0860, followed by a decline to 1.0835. Buy with a 1.0820 stop. Themove back down is natural and takes nothing away from the importance of the breakout. However, EURUSD should not decline significantly below the breakout (breakout 1.0840; EURUSD should not go below 1.0825. After a prolonged up move when a top has been made there is usually a trading range, followed by a sharp decline. After that, a secondary reaction back near the old highs often occurs. This is because the market gets ahead of itself and a short squeeze occurs. Selling near the old top with a stop above the old top is the safest place to sell. The third lower top is also a great place to sell. The same is true in reverse for down moves. Be careful not to buy near top or sell near bottom within trading ranges. Wait for breakaway (huge profit potential) or play the range. Whether the market is very active or in a trading range, all indications are more accurate and trustworthier when the market is actively trading.
Limitations of charts
Scheduled economic announcements that are complete surprises render nearby short-term support and resistance levels meaningless because the basis (all available information) has changed significantly, requiring a price adjustment to reflect the new information. Other support and resistance levels within the normal daily trading range remain valid. For example, on Friday the unemployment number missed the mark by roughly 120,000 jobs. That’s a huge disparity and rendered all nearby resistance levels in the EURUSD meaningless. However, resistance level 200 points or more from the day’s opening were still meaningful because they represented resistance to a big up move on a given day.
Unscheduled or unexpected statements by government officials may render all charts points on a short-term chart meaningless, depending upon the severity of what was said or implied. For example, when Treasury Secretary John Snow hinted that the U.S. had abandoned its strong U.S. dollar policy.
by Jimmy Young CTA
Recommendation
There are several good charting packages available free. Netdania is what I use.
Using charts effectively
The default number of periods on these charts is 300. This is a good starting point;
Hourly chart that's about 12 days of data.
15 minute chart its 3 days of data.
5-minute chart it's slightly more than 24 hours of data.
You can create multiple "tabs" or "layouts" so that it’s easy to quickly switch between charts or sets of charts.
What to look at first
1. Glance at hourly chart to see the big picture. Note significant support and resistance levels within 2% of today’s opening rate.
2. Study the 15 minute chart in great detail noting the following:
Prevailing trend
Current price in relation to the 60 period simple moving average.
High and low since GMT 00:00
Tops and bottoms during full 3 day time period.
How to use the information gathered so far
1. Determine the big picture (for intraday trading).
Glancing at the hourly chart will give you the big picture – up or down. If it’s not clear immediately then you’re in a trading range. Lets assume the trend is down.
2. Determine if the 15 minute chart confirms the downtrend indicated by big picture:
Current price on 15-minute chart should be below 60 period moving average and the moving average line should be sloping down. If this is so then you have established the direction of the prevailing trend to bedown.
There are always two trends – a prevailing (major) trend and a minor trend. The minor trend is a reversal of the main trend, which lasts for a short period of time. Minor trends are clearly spotted on 5-minute charts.
3. Determine the current trend (major or minor) from the 5 minute chart:
Current price on 5-minute chart is below 60 period moving average and the moving average line is sloping downward – major trend.
Current price on 5-minute chart is above 60 period moving average and the moving average line is sloping upward – minor trend.
How to trade the information gathered so far
At this point you know the following:
Direction of the prevailing trend.
Whether we are currently trading in the direction of the prevailing (major) trend or experiencing a minor trend (reaction to major trend).
Possible trade scenarios:
1) Lets assume prevailing (major) trend is down and we are in a minor up-trend. Strategy would be to sell when the current price on 5-minute chart falls below the 60 period moving average and the 60 period moving average line is sloping downward. Why? Because the prevailing trend is reasserting itself and the next move is likely to be down. Is there more we can do? Yes. Look for further confirmation. For example, if the minor trend had stalled for a while and the lows of the past half hour or hour are very close to the 5 minute moving average then selling just below the lows of the past half hour is a better place to enter the market then just below the moving average line.
2) Lets assume prevailing (major) trend is down and 5-minute chart confirms downtrend. Strategy would be to wait for a minor (up trend) trend to appear and reverse before entering the market. The reason for this is that the move is too “mature” at this point and a correction is likely. Since you trade with tight stops you will be stopped out on a reaction. Exception: If market trades through today’s low and/ or low of past three days (these levels will be apparent on the 15 minute chart) further quick downward price action is likely and a short position would be correct.
3) A better strategy assuming prevailing trend down, 5-minute chart down, and just above days lows is to BUY with a tight stop below the day’s low. Your risk is limited and defined and the technical condition (overdone?) is in your favor. Confirmation would be if today’s low was a bit higher than yesterday’s low and the price action indicated a very short-term trading range (1 minute chart) just above today’s low. The thinking here is that buyers are not waiting for a break of today’s or yesterday’s low to buy cheaper; they are concerned they may not see the level.
4) Generally speaking, the safest place to buy is after a sustained significant decline when the bottoms are getting higher. Preferably these bottoms will be hours apart. By the third or forth higher bottom it is clear a bottom is in place and an up-move is coming. As in the example above your risk is limited and defined – a low lower than the last low.
5) The reverse is true in major up-trends.
Other chart ideas
There are always two trends to consider – a major trend and a minor trend. The minor trend is a reversal of the major trend, which generally lasts for a short period of time. Buying above old tops and selling below old bottoms can be excellent entry levels; assuming the move is not overly mature and a nearby reaction unlikely. When a strong up move is occurring the market should make both higher tops and higher bottoms. The reverse is true for down moves- lower bottoms and lower tops. Reactions (minor reversals) are smaller when a strong move is occurring. As the reactions begin to increase that is a clear warning signal that the move is losing momentum. When the last reaction exceedsthe prior reaction you can assume the trend has changed, at least temporarily. Higher bottoms always indicate strength, and an up move usually starts from the third or fourth higher bottom. Reverse this rule in a rising market; lower tops… You will always make the most money by following the major trend although to say you will never trade against the trend means that you will miss a lot of opportunities to make big profits. The rule is: When you are trading against the trend wait until you have a definite indication of a selling or buying point near the top or bottom, where you can place a close stop loss order (risk small amount of capital). The profit target can be a short-term gain to nearby resistance or more. Consider the normal or average daily range, average price change from open to high and average price change from open to low, in determining your intra-day price targets. Do not overlook the fact that it requires time for a market to get ready at the bottom before it advances and for selling pressure to work it’s way through at top before a decline. Smaller loses and sidewaystrading are a sign the trend may be waning in a downtrend. Smaller gains and sideways trading in an up trend. Fourth time at bottom or top is crucial; next phase of move will soon become clear… be ready.Oftentimes, when an important support or resistance level is broken a quick move occurs followed by a reaction back to or slightly above support or below resistance. This is a great opportunity to play thebreak on the “rebound”. Your stop can be super tight. For example, EURUSD important resistance 1.0840 is broken and a quick move to 1.0860, followed by a decline to 1.0835. Buy with a 1.0820 stop. Themove back down is natural and takes nothing away from the importance of the breakout. However, EURUSD should not decline significantly below the breakout (breakout 1.0840; EURUSD should not go below 1.0825. After a prolonged up move when a top has been made there is usually a trading range, followed by a sharp decline. After that, a secondary reaction back near the old highs often occurs. This is because the market gets ahead of itself and a short squeeze occurs. Selling near the old top with a stop above the old top is the safest place to sell. The third lower top is also a great place to sell. The same is true in reverse for down moves. Be careful not to buy near top or sell near bottom within trading ranges. Wait for breakaway (huge profit potential) or play the range. Whether the market is very active or in a trading range, all indications are more accurate and trustworthier when the market is actively trading.
Limitations of charts
Scheduled economic announcements that are complete surprises render nearby short-term support and resistance levels meaningless because the basis (all available information) has changed significantly, requiring a price adjustment to reflect the new information. Other support and resistance levels within the normal daily trading range remain valid. For example, on Friday the unemployment number missed the mark by roughly 120,000 jobs. That’s a huge disparity and rendered all nearby resistance levels in the EURUSD meaningless. However, resistance level 200 points or more from the day’s opening were still meaningful because they represented resistance to a big up move on a given day.
Unscheduled or unexpected statements by government officials may render all charts points on a short-term chart meaningless, depending upon the severity of what was said or implied. For example, when Treasury Secretary John Snow hinted that the U.S. had abandoned its strong U.S. dollar policy.
by Jimmy Young CTA
